Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Obama or Hillary: Who Would You Vote For?

Super Tuesday is building to be super exciting because the California and U.S. national polls have both Clinton and Obama statistically tied going into today's primaries. The momentum is in Obama's favor. A month ago delegate-rich California would have decidedly given Clinton the majority of the votes. However, a poll released February 4 even has Obama ahead by a few points in that state. While it sounds close, California may vote in Hillary's favor because in the month prior to Feb. 5, nearly half of votes could have been mailed in, and during a time frame when more support was polled for Clinton.

She is also expected to take the next largest state New York. Still, there is a dynamic U.S. electorate right now and as was seen in New Hampshire, polling results are not at all necessarily good predictors of outcome. In that state primary, Obama was expected to win, but Hillary pulled a "comeback kid". So there could be a generous number of political surprises on Tuesday.

Super Tuesday's outcome is expected by political analysts to be an indecisive split for both Democratic candidates, therefore, it's expected that remaining state primaries will be even more crucial in determining a clear leader and party nominee.

It's a very exciting and unique contest. Both obviously, by gender and race, represent that kind of change, it will be a party first for either.

Who will represent the most change? Hillary does not. She has been in the White House with Bill for eight years, and was already heavily involved in that level of politics. She spent years while Bill was in office, working on a revised health care system, and often reminds audiences that the "'90s weren't so bad", the "'90s were a prosperous time". She alludes to her husband's tenure as President, and hints that with another Clinton there, things will be the same as they were in the 1990s. You can't help but think that there still are two potential President Clintons.

A President Obama would signal a large political and sociological change because it would indicate that race matters less than ever to the mostly non-black American voter. It may also send the message that Americans are ready to trust, and give a black candidate a chance. As well, because racism has been an American disgrace, some may view an Obama win, either consciously or subconsciously, as compensation for centuries of inequality. While females and blacks historically have been not treated as equals, the black experience has been more inhumane. That change in the government's top spot will for many be seen as the greatest change. For this observer too.

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