What a week it's been in Canada and the world!

In Canadian politics, there is, again, a majority government where we should not expect another $300 million to be spent in 2-3 years on an election. Well, Stephen Harper has his majority so let's see what he can achieve with this. Let's hope there are plenty of positive policies, programs, initiatives and improvements for the social patchwork quilt of citizens.

This was a surprising election for several obvious reasons. Jack Layton's NDP got a whopping 102 seats, more than doubling his party's best showing ever, and the Liberals fell to an all-time low (34 seats). While Quebec gave the NDP the boost, they gave the sovergnists Bloc Quebecois the boots.

Basically the BQ got BBQued, with only 4 seats left at the table.

BQ leader Gilles Duceppe and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, stepped down, to allow a new face to try and breathe more oxygen into their party's respective bloodstreams. The seperatist Bloc party were left with barely a sign of life. It may not necessarily mean their long-term demise but at least it is a message from Quebecers that they are tired of the status quo, and being distant relatives in the Canadian family.

The NDP were on fire. Jack Layton, must have connected with lots of voters, and/or people just wanted a change. Even in Newfoundland & Labrador, we now have a second NDP MP - first time ever. In fact, even their candidates were very likely surprised, not to mention the voters in some ridings. Here's an example why: In the Quebec riding of Berthier-Maskinongé, 27 year old Ruth Anne Brosseau, vacationed in Vegas during the election. She obviously did not take it too seriously, especially since her riding is over 90% Francophone, and she does not speak French. There is currently a complaint about her nomination papers having fake names.

One other surprise is the youngest Canadian MP ever, the 19 year old New NDP member Pierre-Luc Dusseault, a second year pol-sci student. Click here for more detail about the new faces of the NDP.

While the country was changing it's political patchwork, the world got rid of it's most hated terrorist.

Last Sunday night was one of those "Where were you when you heard the news?" moments! It must have been an inkling of how people felt when in 1945 they heard that Hitler was dead. This monster is gone from the face of the earth. Unfortunately, there are still others who are still ignorant, extreme and hate-filled, who want nothing more than the destruction of almost anyone who does not share their misguided ideals. For now, their symbol is missing, and also the charismatic element that propelled the extreme message that their murderous group represents.

NDP leader realizes his Laytont potential

                              (This is my 6ooth blog post)

There is definitely a parallel thread between Obama breaking the black barrier in 2008, and the socialist NDP in Canada, breaking the traditionalist party barrier (and the NDP see and are using this in their own styled references).

For election after election, there is a complacency in the traditional power holders, Liberals and PC/Conservatives, about the NDP being nothing more than a pest in terms of getting elected to government. In the 2011 era, with more world knowledge than ever, with social media, and internet news, and of course, regular tv and radio reporting, the vibes of a nation may be perceived by the general populace, much sooner than backroom media coaches can be prepared for. It does not take much for people to pick up a vibe, and to have their political senses suddenly awakened, to tune in to the excitement of being part of a radical shift in social, traditional expected status quo elected party status. At this moment, with only 1 day till election day, there is a sliml possibility that the NDP will be the governing party of Canada.

How quickly views can change. There is a lesson to be learned here. Whether the NDP's surge in polls will be sustained and grows enough till May 2, there is the lesson that it could, and that traditional parties should not take traditional results for granted. At this moment the NDP are Not 3rd place anymore. They are 1st in Quebec polls, and in an IPSOS Reid poll conducted on Apr. 27, 45% of Canadians see Jack Layton as the best Prime Minister as opposed to Stephen Harper at 42%. Interesting!

There are plenty of interesting lines of interest here - What's happening so suddenly on Canada's political landscape? Why the current shift to Layton and the NDP? Is there a leap of political thought that skips a more gradual evolutionary stage of transitional shift from traditional party to a "chancey" socialist party?

Factors:

Well, today's political audience does not like to be told what to think, as in "The NDP are not ready to lead" (because of their inexperience in governing the country).

Jack Layton is a veteran, a political vetern.. even has a cane, which suggests injury... and an injury which is secondary to his commitment to country first.

Canadians are thinking, "hmm, so if you guys can call a 5th election in 7 years, then, let's play around with tradition.. and so let's see what the NDP can offer... especially, since we can get rid of a current government in a year, 2 or three anyway, if we don't like it... apparently.

In a social capture of gas prices rising, food prices rising, the fixed income populace (which is ever increasing) becoming a growing voting populate, people unsurprisingly gravitate to a political party that addresses their bottom line.. finances, and surviving life, it's not surprising that the NDP are a more relevant party to vote for.

Jack Layton is indeed the dark horse story in this election. His latent potential has surprised everyone, including the party themselves. In fact at least two NDP candidates were off on vacation while the campaign was on (previous bookings out of country) which still gives an impression that they did not really take it too seriously that their party would win. Layton has also leaped wildly ahead of the Bloc in Quebec, leaving Gilles Duceppe in the sovereignist dust. According to Ipsos polling, he's at 42% in Quebec compared to the Bloc's 26% (Apr. 29). So it looks like Layton has caused a wave.

Maybe if he had used sooner, his approach that rebutted the assumed and expected Liberal line that the NDP will never govern, and to also use "Prime Minister" and himself in the same sentence sooner, it may have began his surge sooner, hence a larger support at the ballot box.

On election eve, it's surprisingly close between the Conservatives and the Liberals no, the NDP. Ipsos Reid on Apr. 29 had them at 38% and 33%. While it's looking like Harper's Conservatives will again be taking the helm, a D-day-like mobilization by NDP supporters to get the vote to the polls could close the gap. As usual it will be interesting to see the final outcome on Monday night.

How a Liberal NDP Coalition Could Come to Power

I'll give the Opposition parties credit for at least injecting some innovative drama back into the often barren, pallid landscape of Canadian politics. Speaking of pallid, Stephane Dion, the defeated Liberal leader from the Oct. 14 election, could become Prime Minister very soon. The same man that almost immediately had Liberals planning a leadership race to replace him, and the same man charged with the Liberals' poor showing in the election. This would be a pretty neat curve ball at the Canadian electorate, who said through their votes, that they did not want Dion as Prime Minister.

So would giving Harper's government a non-confidence vote this month, automatically mean that another election would be called? The answer is (from what this non-political expert found out) is no.

According to Carleton University political scientist Jonathan Malloy, there is no constitutional text to describe how this specific government transition should be handled. A coalition at the federal level would be a Canadian first.

[In 1979, Prime Minister Joe Clark who lead a minority government, could have formed a coalition government with the six Social Credit MP's, and achieved a majority government. He may have regretted not doing that, since his minority government lasted only nine months before Trudeau, who had suggested he was quitting, beat Clark in a 1980 election.]

It could be an instance, according to Malloy, where the Governor General, Michelle Jean, could make a major political decision. If Harper's government falls, Harper could ask the Governor General to approve another federal election, but she has the discretion to not oblige, and instead, ask the Opposition to try forming a government. This scenario could conceivably be more palatable to most Canadians given that just some weeks ago, the election signs were only being picked up, taken down and stored away for future recycling.

Interesting food for thought, but this Canuck has no appetite for what would be a wasteful election, requested by anyone, just after an unnecessary October election. Imagine the possible Liberal/NDP slogans, "You Didn't Like Dion then, But He's Great Now!", or "New Democratic and Improved"...
see possible Liberal/NDP coalition names

Layton's Debate Performance Causing an Orange Shift?

As mentioned in my previous post on the leaders' debate Thursday night, NDP leader Jack Layton was strong, and may have given some "on the fence" voters more reason to switch to NDP. This lone Canadian suggested immediately after the debate that both Elizabeth May and Layten were the most impressive, and it appears a new poll is reflecting the same from other Canadians.

The NDP are now only two points behind the federal Liberals. In that debate, it seemed like he had his sights set not only on Harper but also on Dion. Among other salvos, he did score a few points by reminding the public of Liberal's health cuts in previous administrations.

At this point in NL, unless Walter Noel or Craig Westcott can make some solid appeals to voters, it looks like Jack Harris will be at least one Dipper going to Ottawa. Layton has boosted his party's image as a real Opposition party alternative, and this may help the campaign of other local NDP candidate Ryan Cleary in his bid to replace current front runner Siobhan Coady, and eventually win.

Jack Layton will be in St. John's Sunday morning at the Admiral's Green Clubhouse at Pippy Park Golf Course at 10 a.m. Local NDP candidates and provincial leader Lorraine Michael will be there as well.