Will voters make history again in the 2012 U.S. election?

In my last post, I said that the Clinton speech would help Obama, and boost him in the polls by 5% or more. Well, a CNN poll a few days later had indeed reported a relatively huge gain by the Democrats after their convention. Before the Democratic National Convention, the Democrats were at 50%, and in the post convention poll, they were at 59%. Since then, Obama has pulled ahead in swing states like Ohio.

Obama could very well make history again when the final results are in, by being the first president who won an election with an unemployment rate of 8% or higher. No president was re-elected with this status before.

However, it seems that there is either a lingering mistrust of Romney, and a perception of him not really relating to the average middle class Joe. Or, there is a broader understanding that the economic problems inherited by Obama, could not be, as Bill Clinton said at the Democratic convention last week, solved in four years by any president including himself. Or, both.

As well, while each campaign stretches or distort the truth to different extents, Obama is at least attempting to appear the honest and diligent choice. In an interview some days ago, he told a reporter that he is aware of his own short-comings, referring to the sluggish economic rebound, not the one he had hoped for.

Politically he should have the support of a sizable chunk of a number of major groups - African Americans 90+% support, women (with his abortion stand), gays (with his support of their marriage), and the Latino vote. At the Democratic National Convention, there were a number of Latino speakers, including a rising star in California, San Antonio Mayor, Julian Castro, and his twin Joaquin Castro, representative from Texas, so he is covering that base.

Bill Clinton was strong at the convention, telling Americans, that no matter who was president, no one could clear it up in one term. So with this support, and the possible new perspective of what the economy was like, and how slowly it is rebounding, voters at this point seem to be still willing to give Obama a second term.

He is likeable, and perhaps many voters appreciate that as the first black President, his sense of place in history, Obama will serve with integrity, and accept his human limitations.. and in doing so, realize that the opponent Romney, also has his limitations, and weaknesses. It's getting more interesting.

History can be made again. From this blogger's chair, there is a sense that people are becoming more aware of a broader economic picture of the recession that welcomed the Obama administration, and willing once again to evolve as voters in understanding economic and recovery perspective.

Clinton's Captivating Speech Could Re-elect Obama

Even if Bill Clinton had not been a successful president himself, the masterful speech he delivered last night will boost Obama's support, lessen Romney's and more likely re-elect the incumbent. Clinton's piece by piece analysis and perspective of the situation Obama inherited, and his subsequent economic efforts and achievements, were a huge part of the former president's sales pitch.

It was also his delivery, sometimes succinct, and folksy style of wording, where people not only understood, but could take it home, and talk about it, and believe it. He could drill down on details, and yet simplify for a broader understanding. It was spellbinding to watch. President Obama's record could not have gotten a more believable and superior endorsement. Clinton's delivery will certainly be studied in future university text books.

His mastery of political perspective, and especially presidencies since Reagan's time, gave him the apparent ease, persuasiveness, and indisputable story lines that simply stand out and above any speaker in the DNC or GOP national conventions. His speech approach was delivered in a way that the listener was convinced that this man was sincere, exceptionally well informed, and understandable. Much of it was understandable because President Clinton, could look at the larger picture, and sum it up in simplified ways. For example, when describing the Republican's pitch to voters, he put it this way.
"Now you gotta listen to this. They said that Obama received a mess, he did not solve it fast enough, so elect us back in."

This was after telling the audience that the eight years of Republican leadership was largely to blame for the mess that Obama inherited. Clinton's point was sharp, simple, and memorable.

Every word that he spoke captivated the audience in the auditorium, and they often responded with exuberant cheers and applause. Clinton's gauging of the audiences' excitement and noise, was thoughtfully built in to his delivery. He made sure that they were not going to miss anything he said. For example, he would say, "Now you gotta listen to this," or, "I want you to listen to me." It had the effect of convincing the audience of his own self-confidence, his conviction in the facts he was about to say, and his commanding authority to speak about Obama's record, and Republican contributions in causing the economic crisis.

Clinton also, piece by piece, refuted major claims made last week at their national convention, against President Obama. He made the Republicans look terrible, misleading, and simply, the wrong party to vote for.

The job of Obama in his speech tonight should be that much easier because Bill Clinton covered much already. It should be easier if Obama can now present a more detailed, plausible and persuasive economic plan for the next four years, and also, expand on the themes from the last two nights of speeches on creating more opportunities for the middle class and youth, and investing in broader health coverage.

The pressure is on, and he has to connect with listeners, and give a clear vision of what they can expect. His speech has to be remembered. Two nights ago First Lady Michelle Obama gave a tremendous speech about her husband, which could win some voters. Bill Clinton made history with his speech, and supreme support for re-electing Obama. It is being hailed by veteran political analysts as the greatest he has ever delivered. Tonight, it will add to the challenge of President Obama, to give a memorable, hopeful, constructive speech, that is his own, and that will linger in the minds of the electorate.

PM and Obama to Discuss Energy, Economy, Brad and Angelina

President Obama will arrive in Ottawa 12:00 pm NF time. In a clip played on CBC earlier Obama was asked, "is oilsands oil, dirty oil?" He did not directly say yes, but diplomatically answered by saying that a "new" technology could be used to decrease the release of carbon. We may get a better idea of how green this president is after tomorrow's meeting, his desire for future clean energy, and how Canada's auto industry will be affected by U.S. recession-time policies. This could also be a day where Brad and Angelina do not make news sites' headlines.

Celebrating Obama as President

Retired workers celebrate Obama's inauguration.

First Black President Effect

There is an authentic sincerity in the reaction of black Americans, that this presidential change of guard really is something to celebrate. Obama's rise to the top was relatively quick, for just in 2007, he was a just another black hope, for a while. Some are still pinching themselves to make sure this is real. This is really a win for everyone in the U.S. and for anyone anywhere with dreams that prejudice and inequality can be overcome. It is truly heartwarming to see African-Americans jubilant, ecstatic and celebrating with their hearts into it.

How many people have cried tears of happiness. Entertainer, Usher, who reported from one of the many galas, told Larry King, that he could not be happier. Kids interviewed in schools now had a new hero, a political leader. The very installment of Obama as United States President is itself a gigantic example of what anyone could do with hard work and determination.

It may even change popular culture. Music and lyrics may not so much criticize the system or the "man" as being part of a problem. Some comedians may have to find a new angle to poke fun at politicians, at least till Obama's honeymoon period is over. But blacks are going crazy with happiness at the first black president, and that is about time to see. It is amazing to witness millions so positively affected, motivated, encouraged and hopeful about as Usher put it, a "further abolishment of inequality". That's something for anyone anywhere to celebrate because it means our society has evolved in its thinking, attitude and perception. It does not end all racism but the prospects for decreasing it just got a resounding boost, and not just at the U.S. ballot box, but by peoples' happy endorsement of it around the world.

A Giant Leap for Mankind - Obama's Inauguration

U.S. Presidential Inaugurations are huge events, sort of like a royal coronation or wedding. Obama's inauguration on Tuesday, may get a record number of viewers for his inaugural speech, if the hype and excitement leading up to it are an indication. It is very exciting. In fact, if there's a scalper out there with one of the 28,000 seat tickets, please leave message. Kidding aside, this event obviously so historic, has actually brought hope to people everywhere, and for the moment at least, abundant happiness to millions, especially African-Americans.

One of their own has made it to the top - who can't be happy for them! In interviews they will say that they never dreamed of seeing a black president, and the reaction is still almost disbelief, as if it's too good to be true - yet they are celebrating it for what it is, a giant leap for mankind.

Just over 200 years ago, the first President, George Washington, inaugurated in 1789, would never have had the idea of a black president circulate in one brain neuron. His family were slave owners, and he inherited 11 after his father died in 1741, and by 1774, he was paying taxes on 134 slaves.

In a way African-Americans were in the White House in Washington's day. He had brought slaves 7 slaves to New York (then the U.S. capital) in 1789 to work in his household, and 9 to Philidelphia in 1790. (The White House was constructed between 1792-1800.)

By Abe Lincoln's second inauguration, the Emancipation Proclamation of 1862, which freed slaves, had been implemented two years previous. Though the slaves were told they were free, it still took many decades later for real equality to be actualized in American society.

It was not until the 1960's that all impediments to the black vote were removed. For about 90 years after slavery was abolished, blacks for all intents and purposes could not vote, though, they could - if certain conditions were met. For example, after Lincoln's death, it was legislated that all voters had to be literate. Practically none of the slaves were, nor were their parents or grandparents.

Legislators also introduced laws that only permitted voting eligibility if a poll tax had been paid, thus, making blacks and even poor whites out of luck. By the early 1960s all voting impediments were removed. Even just 40 plus years ago, giving more equality to blacks caused many years of blacklash, rioting, murder, and continuation of deeply rooted prejudices.

How times have changed. African-Americans will view themselves differently, with more pride than ever, and they will have a world full of company. The dreams of equality of peoples have been realized. In a much repeated time of economic crisis, the inauguration of America's first black president is worth the traditional elaborate pomp and circumstance that surrounds this momentous political and societal shift in attitude. It's such a positive hopeful happening in a time when too much hope has been spent and not saved for the future.

Related: The election that made the world smile

The Election that Made the World Smile

(A shorter version of this was published in The Telegram on Nov. 22, 2008)

From Australia, to Kenya, to Asia, people danced in the streets when it was projected that Barack Obama was President-Elect of the U.S. This election was like no other in U.S. history, and there may never be one where millions of people celebrate in American streets. After the news announcement, the change that took place was instant. The change was one of attitude, justice, and freedom.

How many black Americans watching last night, never dreamed of a black man being elected President in their lifetimes? Many watching had lived through extreme racist violence against them decades ago. They were not allowed to use the same washrooms, attend the same schools, or sit on the same buses. They can remember open hatred toward them, and heard stories from their parents and grandparents of slavery and lynchings.

Until only several generations ago, when you were born black it was inherent that you were not a full person, were different, and better get used to a life of frustration. It was not until the 1960s that all restrictions on the black right to vote were lifted. So being an American "untouchable" was as good as being a genetic trait for African-Americans.

Despite being frustrated by a sick and inhumane culture of discrimination black America proved its ability on every front. However, the top job in the country was never that realistic, until 1984 and '88 when Jesse Jackson ran in Presidential elections. He won 6.9 million votes in the latter. Another African American candidate, Alan Keyes, made several attempts for the office in 1996, 2000 and this year. He was a conservative Republican and some of his views was seen as too radical when running against Clinton. Yet, there has existed the "great black hope".

Four years ago, Senator Barack Obama delivered a keynote address at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston. That speech introduced him to the world. His speech was delivered in a manner that made viewers take notice of him as a confident, passionate, insightful and promising leader. He spoke of unity in the country, the hope of the U.S. for success, and talked about peoples' similarities. His presentation caused waves in the media, and many foresaw him as a future leader, including this blogger. You could tell that he had special abilities.

Growing up as a black person, though his parents were black and white, it appears he realized that to be an accepted leader for the majority of Americans, it would take patience, an ever so gingerly tactful set of speeches, a demonstration of knowledge, an empathy with the needs of whites, blacks and all backgrounds. His influence must heavily be Martin Luther King who also had to demonstrate patience, understanding and strength.

One of Obama's great strengths is his elocution. In order to captivate his audience with carefully chosen words and appropriately accompanying gestures and expressions, he must have spent many many hours of rehearsing his campaign in his own mind. To give speeches that were acceptable to a mostly white America, took much historical perspective analysis on his part. He had to speak not with anger or an air of revenge, but with a message that directed people to view the future for what it could be, rather than remind Americans of past injustices.

Not only did he have what it took to get elected, but the political climate was ready for a breath of fresh air. With the morbid war years and the despised international image of the U.S. particularly under Bush, the time was right for this "right" African American candidate. In a way George Bush could be thanked for helping him get elected. McCain was seen in public as being a Bush ally, and that was a turn-off for many.

What Obama ignited with his 2004 speech flamed into a burning vision of a new America where there is pride in being racially equal, and non-discriminatory. It may have also lead to the sense of their nation being released from the burden of its own historical conscience. It is a new reason for America to be proud of itself, and it is the hope and underlined emancipation that made the world smile.

Obama is America's First Black President

Yes he did! What a miletone in history! The United States can give itself a pat on the back for electing an African American as President. Though the popular vote was close in many states, the outcome was not quite the surprise as the picture above would suggest. Obama was favoured in over 100 polls done nation-wide in the U.S. since September, said a CNN reporter earlier. This event marks a proud moment for black America and for the nation itself, as it can begin a new chapter in race perception!

How Obama does as President remains to be seen but he has broken the color barrier, and given hope to all people who have incredible hurdles to overcome to succeed. This is huge for the African American population of the U.S., and minority groups everywhere in the world. This change is cause for celebration right now.

"Yes We Can" More Than Just a Campaign Slogan

The frenzy and excitement of possibly having an African-American President will climax tomorrow evening. For weeks polls have shown Barack Obama with a significant lead over rival John McCain. CNN's latest has a 7 percentage point lead. Black America is on the brink of mass hysteria, a nation-wide street filled celebration of victory, freedom and hope.

At this point John McCain will have to pray for a lightning bolt of brilliance to strike him in the next 24 hours, or pray for a major calamity in the Obama campaign. His downward spiral began after his September statement when Wall Street collapsed, that the "fundamentals of our economy are strong". Soon after he said that the fundamentals of the economy are "at risk".

Obama's campaign was strong, it had to be to withstand the challenge of formerly presumptive winner Hillary Clinton, to overcome negative ties from Obama's past, to overcome racial differences and doubt about a black leader. Over time, Obama impressed voters with his words and eloquence. The idea of change has come to mean many things to different people.

"Yes We Can" is positive message implying that there is hope, there is victory, there is success that is within reach. It encompasses all races, and backgrounds. For black America it also means, "yes, we can also work in a position where no black man has worked before, there are no limits on what we can do". The slogan sends a message from Barack Obama to fellow African-Americans that there is no longer anything that can really hold people back. It sends a message of intense pride of a race. The very electing of Obama in itself could have the effect of mass motivation, not just for blacks but for anyone, anyone who sees obstacles to overcome in life to succeed.

In ways, his speeches have been idealistic in vision, but the first order of business will be to handle the top priority of the economy, and peoples' personal economic crises. With an Obama Presidency there will be the most dramatic change perhaps ever. Not necessarily so in direct policy changes in the immediate years, but certainly it will mark a national attitude change about race and image. It will create a pride that all Americans, and outsiders can appreciate.

Related: The Election that made the World Smile

McCain Fries

The second U.S. Presidential debate last night gave a hint of the angrier side of John McCain. At the end of the debate when the candidates did their hand shakes with some people in the small community forum setting, McCain while busy with the wife at his side moving around, pointing/acknowledging people, chatting, etc., eventually crossed paths in the small floor setting, with Barack Obama again. He gave Obama a very quick pat on the back, seemed a little edgy, and did not reciprocate a hand shake Obama had clearly initiated. Prior to that in the debate, he referred to Obama as "that one" when discussing his own energy bill - "You know who voted for it? You might never know. That one," McCain said as he pointed toward Obama.

Soon after the debate a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey said that 54% felt that Obama won, while 30% gave it to McCain. The hand shake dismissal was noticed by pundits immediately, and the impression from their encounter was that McCain showed contempt for his opponent. One analyst said it was his contempt for having to share the stage with a younger, bright whipper-snapper.

Obama has been moving ahead in the polls, and this debate may seal the deal for him. If the legendary Nixon-Kennedy is remembered for Nixon's five o'clock shadow, the effect of McCain's comments and behaviour last night will amplify the negative impression viewers may consciously or subconsciously have had on him, and possibly be one of the more memorable debate moments.

Passing the Political Torch in the U.S.

This week at the U.S. Democratic National Convention the Clintons had to bite the bullet and cheer on rival Barack Obama, the man who surprised everyone with a defeat over Hillary. Hearing Bill Clinton say that Obama is the type of person the U.S. needs seemed so unusual. There had been a cooling off period since Bill's better half had to quit her unanticipated and long-drawn out battle. It almost did not seem natural for the Clintons to be up at the podium championing the candidate they reportedly barely liked, according to Hillary biographer Carl Bernstein. After all, Obama was powerfully endorsed by the lion, Ted Kennedy, and Jack's daughter Caroline. That was damaging to the Clintons since they admired the Kennedys since JFK. Even Jackie O said that Hillary was her favorite first lady since Camelot. As well, JFK Jr. supported Bill Clinton when he ran for the Democrats.

It was odd too to hear Bill & Hillary's support and unity speeches this week when you consider that only months ago their strategist Mark Penn had planned to suggest that Barack Obama is not fundamentally American. After that attack angle Obama probably decided against Hillary as a possible running mate anyway. Penn, according to Carl Bernstein, had a hand in writing both Clinton speeches this week, and they let it be known.

Despite their spite, the Clintons put on a brave and politically professional face this week. Not actually selecting Hillary had to be a final wound. Continuing to crusade for Obama will be a test of the the Democrats unity and the Clinton's inner strength.

Politics can be hurtful when it has to be. Bill Clinton would have liked his legacy to have been repeated at a level befitting a successful President, but because his wife was Obama's main challenger, he should not have expected too many accolades when that obviously would have been self defeating to winner Obama. Obama had indeed mentioned that under Bill good things happened in the country but his praise was understandably restrained.

In Bill Clinton's DNC speech this week he delivered a fairly convincing message of support for the historic candidate from Chicago. The Clintons now have to try to shine in their new roles as Obama promoters, though yesterday's Republican choice for Vice President, female Sarah Palin must have made Hillary think, "the same role could have been mine". A relative unknown, and inexperienced Alaskan Governor could potentially hook the second most powerful position in the U.S. Hillary will be speaking on Obama's behalf but she just might be biting her tongue much of the time given the shocking GOP VP candidate.

The Clinton's sincerity and how it is perceived by the public could be a huge factor in whether Barack Obama makes history as the first black President, or simply becomes history.

Sarah Palin - Never Heard of Her? You Will

She is the Governor of Alaska, she hunts, fishes, eats moose burgers, and could be the Vice President of the United States.

John McCain actually shows his reformer side by choosing a "non-typical" running mate. Palin, a woman, is highly respected. She is 44, a mother of 5, including a child with downs syndrome, and pro-life. It's an interesting pick for several reasons.

Despite McCain's criticism of Barack Obama for his purported inexperience, he has picked a VP candidate who is younger than Obama. She has two years experience as Governor, and before that was mayor of a small town called Wasilla. If McCain is elected, she could be the leader of the free world, taking on terrorists, and navigating the perpetual swampland of Arab-Israeli and Mid East conflicts.

Lately some Hillary supporters had made it known that they will support McCain, and now with a woman VP candidate, it may be more enticing for women voters to choose the McCain ticket. On the other hand she is very much against abortion, and that side won't go over with many women who supported Hillary because of her pro-abortion stance.

Sarah Palin will probably be the most searched internet name in the next week. She will no doubt have her background scrutinized like a lab expert examines DNA. One story so far puts her in a curious situation. "Currently a legislative investigation is looking into allegations that Palin fired Alaska's public safety commissioner because he refused to fire the governor's former brother-in-law, a state trooper. (CNN)"

She also supports drilling for oil in the Arctic national wildlife refuge area.

Finally, if Hillary was ticked at Obama for not picking her as Vice President candidate, imagine how wierd it would be for a virtual unknown woman to be the first female Vice President. Could this impact how strongly Hillary campaigns for Obama over the next several months?

If you thought that Obama's Presidential coronation was a given, given the last eight years of Bush's mess, then this choice for McCain refreshingly breathes youth, life and curiousity into what could very well have been a traditional old white boys team. This election campaign just got very interesting to watch once again.

Similarities Between NL and Black America

In the sense that the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, and African Americans will be "have" entities, there is a similarity - and it is mainly pride. Next year this province is expected to attain the "have" status meaning that we won't need equalization payments that year. In the U.S. already there is a major historical milestone in Barack Obama becoming the first African American to lead one of the two major political parties for president of the nation.

The numbers tell the story. Right now Premier Danny Williams is enjoying an 87% level of support in the polls. Obama got that much and more among black voters in the primaries and caucuses leading up to his victory. Though there are people who are not Williams supporters - including few well known bloggers from the Newfoundland and Labrador, the general public here, as with Obama's black supporters, are feeling a sense of pride in the changing dynamic of their overall image and status.

Obama has a very good chance of becoming the first African American President of the U.S. It is very uplifting for blacks, whites, and people of every background everywhere. Not just 40 years ago was this unthinkable, but one CNN reporter David Gergen, said that even 10 years ago, Obama would probably not have won his southern state primary.

Back to Newfoundland & Labrador, Williams has an overall extraordinary level of support, and one assumes that people from every region of the province were part of the poll, including Labrador. The report on the poll results did not break down how much support he has where. It would be interesting to see just how many Labradorians are supportive of the government in this poll.

Media reports of Newfoundland and Labrador becoming a "have" province next year, along with record surpluses, have probably been a big factor in promoting a sense of pride, and hence, popular support. It would also be interesting to consider if it wasn't such a big deal in the media, would there be such a high level of support. After all, people everywhere are suffering through sickeningly high fuel prices, particularly those on low incomes. Then there is the dramatic rise in another household staple, flour, continuing problems in health care, and still high unemployment and outmigration.

Despite that, it seems most people are liking the direction of the province, and again, pride is a likely factor. People are tired of being perceived as the poor cousin who is mooching of "have" provinces. Danny Williams' gesture of offering help to Ontario probably boosted those poll results a few notches as well. Whatever else it was, it was funny.

It's good to see a changing political direction and attitude in the U.S., as well as a new African American pride. Black political analysts acknowledge this themselves, and people here also empathize with the feeling of positive image and status change.

An Historic Political First in the U.S.

Tonight Barack Obama will become the first African-American Democratic nominee for President of the U.S. At the present moment he is about seven delegates short of the new target of 2118. Today, more superdelegates pledged their support for him, and later this evening, former President Jimmy Carter will do likewise. That was expected - all of Carter's children and grandchildren are Obama supporters. Hillary Clinton earlier stated that until Obama gets the actual number of delegates required, she is not conceding defeat. However, it's only a matter of hours now till the last two primaries are closed in Montana and South Dakota. They are expected to win one state each, but it's too little too late for Hillary.

It's been a fascinating race. Hillary Clinton was the presumed nominee before the U.S. primary season began, but Obama's campaign was super organized and he came from behind to lead in overall support. She showed incredible tenacity in the final months and weeks of this battle. Never give up is a motto she clearly believes in, and is an inspiring motto anytime for anyone.

Will she want the Vice President job? Quite possibly. From this blog's point of view, she is craving a challenging position of power and though the wounds of losing the race will smart for some time, the sting can perhaps be treated with a consolation prize of VP. She would be a very valuable asset for Obama's general election campaign, as she fills in his void of support, i.e., the older white vote, non-college educated voters, and more women. Whether she will offer herself, or if Obama will choose her, is the next bit of drama that will materialize over the weeks ahead.

Hillary's RFK Remark Good for News Media

In a Friday interview Hillary Clinton was making the point that she finds it difficult to believe people are trying to push her out of the Democratic nomination race. She used the example that her husband Bill was only declared the nominee after a June California primary. Then later in the interview when giving another example of a Democratic nominee in 1968 still in the race by June, she unfortunately used the words "when Robert Kennedy was assassinated." It was a poor choice of words but the example was fine. Some have read a metaphoric message of Obama's political assassination into it, but the timing of that word's use was particulary inappropriate because just days ago, Edward Kennedy was diagnosed with a malignant brain tumor. He is also an important endorser of Obama.

If she had left out the "assassination" part of her example, then there would probably be no fallout from this. The example she was trying to use was valid, but it was too good a sound-bite for news media to not to pounce upon and squeeze every bit of mileage out of. Here's one headline from one U.S. political site, Huffington Post, "Clinton Kennedy Assassination Reference: Raises Bobby's Death To Explain Why She Stays In Race". She's had to do plenty of explaining since.

The RFK reference flap has helped Obama look good. He "took her at her word" when commenting on her explanation. So he gets to look like the understanding, calm and good guy. If he were not so far ahead in the delegate race, the reaction might have been different - it could have been ammunition for him.

After at least 14 months of campaigning in the Democratic nomination process, it's amazing they're still standing on the canvas, and speaking coherently at all so Hillary's misspeaking will be forgiven. Unless there is one last scandal for Obama he will win by decision anyway.

Senator John Edwards Will Endorse Barack Obama

Both Clinton and Obama courted Edwards, who came in at number three in the Democratic nomination race. His endorsement is a huge statement of support for Obama, who is seen to be too far ahead to catch anyway, and a big disappointment for Hillary Clinton. The announcement will be made in about one hour from now.

Obama to Widen the Delicate Delegate Gap with Clinton

He is favored to win North Carolina, she, Indiana. The latest polls have the races close - a 4 point lead for Hillary in Indiana, and an 8 point lead for Obama in NC. NC has 115 delegates, Indiana has 72 that are tied to today's primaries (not including superdelegates)

If the results match the polls, this is how the night may end up looking like:

Obama: 62 from North Carolina; 34 from Indiana - Total = 96 delegates
Clinton: 53 from North Carolina; 38 from Indiana - Total = 91 delegates

Obama has spent gazillions on campaign ads in Indiana to make himself known there. Clinton has an advantage in that way everywhere. She might be inspired to keep going after tonight's tally, but she is not closing the gap. He is doing well, considering friendly fire. Despite a recent reminder from Rev. J. Wright of Obama's past pastoral connection, he could be doing much worse in the mostly white Indiana.

Wright's message might ultimately be right, but his spirited delivery and provocative language was given at the wrong time - most recently last week. Go figure the timing, it was hard to tell if he was trying to help Obama or himself. Obama has been distancing himself from him, and it looks like he will have survived the negative association.

Hillary will take Indiana, he, North Carolina. It will be a win-win contest, with the edge to Barack.

Obama can be Eloquent but Phraseologically Careless

In just 10 days from now, Pennsylvania voters will mark their "X's" or "O's" for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. In the latest polls Obama is closing the gap with Clinton in that state. She now leads with just a 6% margin. That trend is not good news for Hillary, but Obama's choice of words yesterday was.

At a private fundraiser in San Francisco he was speaking about hard hit working class voters in Pennsylvania and said,
It's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.

Clinton, needing all the ammunition she can get, attacked like Operation Iraqi Freedom, blasting Obama with
The people of faith I know don't 'cling to' religion because they're bitter. ... I also disagree with Sen. Obama's assertion that people in this country 'cling to guns' and have certain attitudes about immigration or trade simply out of frustration. People of all walks of life hunt — and they enjoy doing so because it's an important part of their life, not because they are bitter.

Clinton is hoping her words will hit a nerve with not just the Pennsylvania electorate, but also those in Indiana and North Carolina - the next two primaries.

For his part, Obama admitted that he "didn't say it as well as I should have". He may have nore explaining to do. His words were careless, and dangerous for him, especially just before the upcoming nomination-determining primary of Pennsylvania - at least that's how important that vote is purported to be.

The comment does cast some additional doubt over him. On the one hand, after the Rev. Wright controversy, he claimed that his church and faith were important to him, yet he uses words like "cling" in reference to religion. That word evokes a sense of desperation, and it can, and is used in a way that is dismissive of its subject.

Today, April 13^th, all the major U.S. news networks have made this story their top headline. Some question whether or not it will negate his gains in Penn. Hillary is hoping so, and will likely continue to use it often over the next 10 days till the April 22 vote.

If Obama's comments hurts in the immediate days ahead, there are a couple of things on his side - a well worded apology or explanation of some sort, which he has attempted already, and time. In politics time may not heal all wounds but give the candidate a chance to buffer the sting with hopeful messages that will become the focus.

In politics and in life, whether it is real or not, people do cling to hope.

New Video Backs up Clinton's Claim of Coming Under Sniper Fire

Clinton's lead over Obama in the vital state of Pennsylvania has narrowed to just 6 points, 50-44 points in a new poll. He is slowly gaining ground on her, and her final bid to be the Democratic nominee. Time has been on his side, he survived the Rev. Wright controversy, and as one commentator described his campaign, continues to run a quiet non-dramatic race. Things are not looking very promising for Hillary Clinton, but this clip should put a smile on even her face.    Warning - a couple of graphic graphics

Obama Pastorizes Campaign

It's been a rough couple of weeks for him in terms of neutralizing potentially campaign-killing trouble makers. His own supporters can be his campaign's worst enemies. It was wife Michelle two weeks back that said she has never been proud of America till now, then the NAFTA message mix-up, the association with slum lord Tony Rezko rekindled in the news, and lately Obama's spiritual advisor was dismissed from the campaign because he mouthed off. Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., told a church congregation, him a Pastor, "No, not God bless America, God damn America."

In his tirade denouncing Hillary Clinton, Pastor Wright also said America had brought the September 11 attacks upon itself.

So Obama had to distance himself from his pastor and friend's comments. But the association with a person who gave a racially charged sermon leaves more questions and doubts about the candidate's background. What other questionable relationships did he or does he have with "racy" people? What are his real attitudes and values?

This week Hillary also had to put a big supporter out to pasture. Geraldine Ferraro made controversial remarks asserting that the only reason Obama is so popular is because he is black. Hillary appeared a few days later to douse that fire as well. They both have had glitches with their supporters. The difference though is that Hillary is much more familiar to the public than he, so each new negative tie he has is a liability which when compounded in a short time span can mortally infect his presidential pursuit.

There's plenty more to learn about him. Obama just might have to continue pasteurizing this campaign because who knows what else lies beneath the surface.