Layton and the NDP on Course for the Par

Jack Layton must have been pleased with the good weather this morning at the Admiral's Green Clubhouse. That's where he made a campaign speech today on his second stop in the province since the campaign started. Layton was surrounded by local candidates Ryan Cleary, Jack Harris, Randy Dawe, provincial NDP leader Lorraine Michael, and supporters holding signs that read "We will defeat Harper", and "United with Layton."

Layton's message was much the same as his debate points - that the NDP is the team to trust and replace Harper; that there will be no more tax breaks for the Exxons, like Harper gave to that company to drill in the tar sands; more jobs in Canada as opposed to exporting them overseas; and that he will improve health care by funding the hiring of more doctors and health professionals.

Asked by a reporter if he thinks the NDP will surpass the record 43 seats attained by Ed Broadbent in the 1988 election. Layton replied that "that is axiomatic, when you're hoping to be Prime Minister." Layton has some reason to be optimistic. His debate performance has gotten good reviews, and his party's rating is almost on par with the Liberals. He pointed the finger several times at Stephane Dion in the leaders debate Thursday night, and reiterated today that Dion has not been an effective Opposition leader against Stephen Harper.

The arrival of the NDP frontman was also welcome news for St. John's South-Mount Pearl candidate Ryan Cleary, as well. Cleary is hoping to increase his support enough to catch, then pass current riding leader Siobhan Coady. They're both well known candidates and the campaign will be very interesting to watch on election night. Merv Wiseman is running for the Conversatives, and at this point has the greatest challenge on his hands.

Not having met him before, with only some familiarity of his background as editor of The Independent, and through reading a range of opinions here in the blogosphere, Mr. Cleary obliged this blogger with a few minutes of his time. No recordings or scribbles taken, just a quick chat. When asked why he is running, he described his desire to help people who are struggling, impoverished and needed help. He described himself as being a strong advocate for the province.

It's hard to really know someone in just a few minutes but to use a Brian Tobin-type pronouncement phrase, I will say this: Cleary may indeed be a good fit for the NDP team. He seems to have a social conscience and is drawn to the NDP's angle of championing for equality. Cleary did say he held other common beliefs with the NDP stance, such as gay marriage, and being pro-choice. While he is representing the party now, he has been criticized for colorful remarks about the NDP in the past. Whether he gave into a writer's temptation to add some flair to his writings, or just told it as he saw it, that's for him to respond to.

In person, this Indy-P was approachable, mild mannered and seemed to possess sincere caring qualities. That particular soft skill is one which helps candidates get elected. But first he has to close the polling gap with Siobhan Coady. Then in nine days time, we'll see if the NDP leader's visit today will have boosted his chances and have a positive effect for him, Harris and the other NDP candidates in the province.

The Election Comes Alive

Congratulations to all three debaters, Mr. Reid, Mr. Williams, and Ms Michael. To this observer all three made great points, and displayed with conviction, their concerns for the province. Up to this point the election has been really just a waiting game, almost a waste of a campaign, because Premier Williams public support is so high, over 75%.

It's been interesting to drive around St. John's to see a noticeable decrease in the number of campaign signs. It could be for several reasons - voter apathy because of the spending scandal, or just that "what's the point of spending energy on supporting a candidate who will likely lose". So this election has lacked any measure of suspense so far, any anticipation of a close race.

The dabate tonight was very lively, heated, and impressive in some ways, and not, in another. You can't help but appreciate the pressure that a live debate puts on political leaders. They are expected to know the issues, know the province and party histories, policies, and have ideas to offer the public. For their strong individual performances they are all commended.

While the debate was lively, it was also annoying. NTV's Fred Hutton is a good newscaster, my aunt loves him. However, during this debate, he made Jerry Springer look like a good moderator. The liveliness was mainly ignited by Liberal Gerry Reid. He was very fiesty, and convincing in his "seriousness" (anger) about issues like the energy plan, and his assertions that Williams ignores Labrador on various issues. Unfortunately, his spirited verbal shots were allowed to be totally out of control by moderator Mr. Hutton.

The debate was too loose in the two way exchanges. Reid was not only louder than Williams and Michael but was almost non-stop talkative while the others were responding. Reid made many points but he really should have allowed the others proper opportunities to respond, rather than continue nearly shouting. It was next to impossible to hear Williams replies many times. There should have been better moderation of this debate.

Lorraine Michael was excellent! She came across as very well spoken, level headed, calm, yet assertive, sincere and bright.

Danny said things that his supporters wanted to hear, "no more giveaways", "we're entering a period of transition to 'have' status". He has not lost any political ground from tonight. Lorraine represented the NDP very well, and if they gain more seats, it would probably be at the Liberal's expense.

With huge developments on the horizon for the province it would be better to see much more debate/discussion time on one major development issue at a time. For example, set aside at least 20 minutes to discuss the Hebron Memorandum of Understanding, 20 for the Lower Churchill Development, 20 for the energy plan, etc. Perhaps the media should consider this to allow more open discussion of significant developments that will affect NL's people and their future.

Famous Moments in Political Debates

Political debates have gotten very scripted, orchestrated and somewhat predictable in recent decades. Certain questions and topics are givens to be raised, so carefully planned responses, and gestures, can be rehearsed by politicians. The power of visual image grew as more people tuned in to the tube.

In the famous 1960 U.S. presidential debate, a pale Richard Nixon, sporting a five-o'clock shadow, faced a tanned, healthy looking, and telegenic John Kennedy. It's been said that radio listeners had a different perception of the debate than television viewers. Kennedy's slim victory could have owed to the televised candidate contrast.

That debate has so frequently been mentioned that it has likely influenced the "production" side of debating more than any other factor. As we know, a tidy, confident, and stately appearance has become a major factor in how the public perceives or rates the performance of candidates. Still, it must be combined with carefully worded responses, the kind that listeners "want to hear". A neatly groomed debater can look and act the part of leader but words have to match the image - and that does not always happen as we will see.

In the 1988 U.S. Vice-presidential debate, Democratic Senator Lloyd Bentsen delivered a stinging jab to Republican candidate Dan Quayle.

In his campaign, Quayle had been put on the defensive for his political inexperience. Leading up to a live televised debate, he had been known to compare himself to John Kennedy, to send the message that relative youth in politics is not necessessarily bad, but can represent vigor, promise and talent, as Kennedy did. (Bentsen had reportedly heard these comparisons before, and may well have had his sail-bursting response ready before the tv debate.)

When asked by moderator Tom Brokaw about his qualifications for acting as President,

Quayle answered: "... I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency ..."

Bentsen's response: "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy: I knew Jack Kennedy; Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine.

"Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy,"

(A lot of audience shouts and applause followed.)

Quayle: That was really uncalled for Senator.

Bentsen: You are the one that was making the comparison, Senator — and I'm one who knew him well. And frankly I think you are so far apart in the objectives you choose for your country that I did not think the comparison was well-taken.

Dan Quayle dropped the Kennedy comparison for the rest of the campaign. The moment was replayed over and over, and was raw resource material for comedians.

One joke went "What did Marilyn Quayle say to Dan Quayle after making love? 'Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy.'"

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A couple of Reaganisms
What an ambitious person Ronald Reagan was. He studied economics and sociology at College, was a radio announcer, acted in 53 films, was president of the screen actors guild, was governor of California, and re-elected in 1970, then became President in 1980.

In his quest for Presidential re-election in 1984, he had to face Democratic candidate Walter Mondale in a live televised debate. At 74, most people would have experienced nearly ten years of retirement, but this man was applying for the mother of all jobs, and his competition was 56 years old. In the debate, Reagan's actor skills would serve him well when he smoothly, and good-naturedly quipped to Walter Mondale,

"I want you to know that also I will not make age an issue of this campaign ... I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience."

Reagan was seen as being sharp, calm, and upbeat, which endeared him to Americans for two terms as President.

In the 1980 debate with President Carter, Reagan asked,

"Are you better off now than you were four years ago?"

The timing of the question was deadly for Carter, as American hostages were still not released by Iranian hostage takers at that point, and under Carter's Presidency. That question seemed to have struck a contemplative chord with voters.

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Given Premier Williams recent remark about Liberal leader Gerry Reid's so-called "scowl", for tonight's debate, Williams might joke that Reid take a tip from former Presidental candidate Bob Dole. In 1996, Bob Dole insisted that his wife be visible to him at all times, because "her job was to remind him to smile."
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It is rare for a "knock-out punch" to be landed in a political debate, but that is what happened in Canada's 1984 election debate between PC Brian Mulrooney and Liberal John Turner. The knock-out punch is when a quip decisively turns the election in one candidate's favor.

At this point, the Liberals had been in power, for what seemed like forever. Pierre Trudeau had retired from Politics in 1984, and John Turner had manned the post that year. Trudeau and the Liberals had been in power since 1968, with the exception of a brief PC Joe Clark 9 month PM stint, beginning in June, 1979.

Mulrooney was young, fresh, and hungry for the big job. During the 1984 debate, John Turner was drilled on the issue of patronage, by Mulrooney. Turner's response that he had to rubber-stamp Trudeau's patronage appointments, had raised the already temperature-rising debate to a trigger point, when Mulrooney responded with,

"You had a choice sir. You had a choice."

Mulrooney's expression was with such conviction and strength that it made Turner look weak. Mulrooney went on to win the election.

There may not be a crippling blow tonight - then again, there are plenty of issues that the opposition can take to the premier, and really drill him on. Likewise, the Premier, who is perched high, is positioned to sling some shots while affording some support loss.

Election debates are usually interesting, and historical in any event. Best wishes to all three leaders, Gerry Reid, Lorraine Michael, and Danny Williams. May they perform to the best of their abilities, and may the exchange be for the betterment of the people of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Predictions for Election 2007

PCs: 41         Liberals: 6         NDP: nun

It's a given there will be a lopsided win, but it would be good to have (former Sister) Lorraine Michael back, and more opposition - NDP and/or Liberals than the current standing of 34/11/1.