As more people become familiar with Barack Obama the more support he gets. His support surge had started to reflect in recent polls in California but many votes were already mailed in before his recent rise in that poll. The Latino vote had been largely behind Clinton, and it seemed to hold true for her in the most populous state of California. Interestingly, Obama did get the majority of the white male vote in that state, and an extremely huge chunk of the black vote there. Had Obama had more time to campaign his momentum may have tipped the Latino vote in his favor. Hillary has more of the female vote at this time. That and the Hispanic vote won her California.
In the meantime, he has won 13 of 22 states, an incredible showing for him against a former first lady and Washington veteran. At the time of this post New Mexico was still undecided (he was at 49%, she was at 48%). He has the money and now more time to appeal to more states in the remaining primaries. Hillary currently has less cashflow for advertising. The big states are out of the way, New York and California. Hillary won them, but overall the delegate count is close. She was expected to win those states, and now it is more of a bare knuckles fight for the rest of the states. As time passes Obama is inching closer to Clinton, and even passing her in the polls.
The U.S. election process is as clear as fog, but Democrats need 2,025 delegates to win the party nomination. As it stands now, Hillary has an overall total of 783 delegates compared to Obama's 709.
The momentum of his message and appeal is spreading, and looking more attractive to voters, particularly newer ones. Hillary is an already familiar face, that many know much about. People are still learning about Obama, and it appears, liking what they are hearing.
In some not so obvious predictable states like Missouri, it was a nail biter right to the very end. With 99% of the vote in, the split was 49.02% for Obama, and 48.18% for Clinton. It finally went to him.
The real war begins now as Obama's ground troops and supporters will need to use their second wind to bolster him in every way, and fuel the momentum he has going.
Super Tuesday's results only some months ago, seemed like it was going to be a coronation for Clinton, however, the tides have turned, and the flow is part of the Obama wave. The next contests are on Saturday in Louisiana, Nebraska and Washington.
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Obama or Hillary: Who Would You Vote For?
Super Tuesday is building to be super exciting because the California and U.S. national polls have both Clinton and Obama statistically tied going into today's primaries. The momentum is in Obama's favor. A month ago delegate-rich California would have decidedly given Clinton the majority of the votes. However, a poll released February 4 even has Obama ahead by a few points in that state. While it sounds close, California may vote in Hillary's favor because in the month prior to Feb. 5, nearly half of votes could have been mailed in, and during a time frame when more support was polled for Clinton.
She is also expected to take the next largest state New York. Still, there is a dynamic U.S. electorate right now and as was seen in New Hampshire, polling results are not at all necessarily good predictors of outcome. In that state primary, Obama was expected to win, but Hillary pulled a "comeback kid". So there could be a generous number of political surprises on Tuesday.
Super Tuesday's outcome is expected by political analysts to be an indecisive split for both Democratic candidates, therefore, it's expected that remaining state primaries will be even more crucial in determining a clear leader and party nominee.
It's a very exciting and unique contest. Both obviously, by gender and race, represent that kind of change, it will be a party first for either.
Who will represent the most change? Hillary does not. She has been in the White House with Bill for eight years, and was already heavily involved in that level of politics. She spent years while Bill was in office, working on a revised health care system, and often reminds audiences that the "'90s weren't so bad", the "'90s were a prosperous time". She alludes to her husband's tenure as President, and hints that with another Clinton there, things will be the same as they were in the 1990s. You can't help but think that there still are two potential President Clintons.
A President Obama would signal a large political and sociological change because it would indicate that race matters less than ever to the mostly non-black American voter. It may also send the message that Americans are ready to trust, and give a black candidate a chance. As well, because racism has been an American disgrace, some may view an Obama win, either consciously or subconsciously, as compensation for centuries of inequality. While females and blacks historically have been not treated as equals, the black experience has been more inhumane. That change in the government's top spot will for many be seen as the greatest change. For this observer too.
She is also expected to take the next largest state New York. Still, there is a dynamic U.S. electorate right now and as was seen in New Hampshire, polling results are not at all necessarily good predictors of outcome. In that state primary, Obama was expected to win, but Hillary pulled a "comeback kid". So there could be a generous number of political surprises on Tuesday.
Super Tuesday's outcome is expected by political analysts to be an indecisive split for both Democratic candidates, therefore, it's expected that remaining state primaries will be even more crucial in determining a clear leader and party nominee.
It's a very exciting and unique contest. Both obviously, by gender and race, represent that kind of change, it will be a party first for either.
Who will represent the most change? Hillary does not. She has been in the White House with Bill for eight years, and was already heavily involved in that level of politics. She spent years while Bill was in office, working on a revised health care system, and often reminds audiences that the "'90s weren't so bad", the "'90s were a prosperous time". She alludes to her husband's tenure as President, and hints that with another Clinton there, things will be the same as they were in the 1990s. You can't help but think that there still are two potential President Clintons.
A President Obama would signal a large political and sociological change because it would indicate that race matters less than ever to the mostly non-black American voter. It may also send the message that Americans are ready to trust, and give a black candidate a chance. As well, because racism has been an American disgrace, some may view an Obama win, either consciously or subconsciously, as compensation for centuries of inequality. While females and blacks historically have been not treated as equals, the black experience has been more inhumane. That change in the government's top spot will for many be seen as the greatest change. For this observer too.
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