In my last post, I said that the Clinton speech would help Obama, and boost him in the polls by 5% or more. Well, a CNN poll a few days later had indeed reported a relatively huge gain by the Democrats after their convention. Before the Democratic National Convention, the Democrats were at 50%, and in the post convention poll, they were at 59%. Since then, Obama has pulled ahead in swing states like Ohio.
Obama could very well make history again when the final results are in, by being the first president who won an election with an unemployment rate of 8% or higher. No president was re-elected with this status before.
However, it seems that there is either a lingering mistrust of Romney, and a perception of him not really relating to the average middle class Joe. Or, there is a broader understanding that the economic problems inherited by Obama, could not be, as Bill Clinton said at the Democratic convention last week, solved in four years by any president including himself. Or, both.
As well, while each campaign stretches or distort the truth to different extents, Obama is at least attempting to appear the honest and diligent choice. In an interview some days ago, he told a reporter that he is aware of his own short-comings, referring to the sluggish economic rebound, not the one he had hoped for.
Politically he should have the support of a sizable chunk of a number of major groups - African Americans 90+% support, women (with his abortion stand), gays (with his support of their marriage), and the Latino vote. At the Democratic National Convention, there were a number of Latino speakers, including a rising star in California, San Antonio Mayor, Julian Castro, and his twin Joaquin Castro, representative from Texas, so he is covering that base.
Bill Clinton was strong at the convention, telling Americans, that no matter who was president, no one could clear it up in one term. So with this support, and the possible new perspective of what the economy was like, and how slowly it is rebounding, voters at this point seem to be still willing to give Obama a second term.
He is likeable, and perhaps many voters appreciate that as the first black President, his sense of place in history, Obama will serve with integrity, and accept his human limitations.. and in doing so, realize that the opponent Romney, also has his limitations, and weaknesses. It's getting more interesting.
History can be made again. From this blogger's chair, there is a sense that people are becoming more aware of a broader economic picture of the recession that welcomed the Obama administration, and willing once again to evolve as voters in understanding economic and recovery perspective.
Last night's Republican debate in Florida was dramatic, snarly, funny, and fascinating. It also changes the tide, again, in Mitt Romney's favor this time.
All four candidates scored points at various times. Rick Santorum was notably forceful, but yet, needlessly long on some answers. Ron Paul was funny, but he does have an interesting vision of how to fix some problems for the country, like illegal immigration, and relations with Cuba. Gingrich does not project the most positive image or the most cheerful attitude especially when it comes to his main rival Mitt Romney. He and his campaign team have been digging plenty of research on Romney, but at one point Romney was prepared and shot back about Newt's similar dealings with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It seemed to catch Gingrich off guard.
Romney was caught a few times as well, but his presentation, delivery and more positive spin on his perceived image as super rich man, was confident and well received by the audience. His delivery was to the point, without hesitation and energetic. He said that he isn't going to apologize for being rich, and more forcefully as he's done before, turned it into a positive. He held it as a success, which employed many others, and led by one who knows how to be successful. He framed it as an asset for the American people and the economy. It was hard to argue with that final word on that particular segment.
Gingrich appeared to be look foolish on another topic. He has promised that he would put a permanent manned station on the moon by the end of his eight years in office. With a $15 trillion debt, high unemployment, many home foreclosures, setting aside tens of billions more for a moon post, just don't seem like a priority, and Ron Paul in particular dismissed that idea. In fact, it was a gradiose idea, and nice maybe, in the future, but at this moment there are not a lot of people calling for employment on the moon. In ways Ron Paul appears radical, certainly not mainstream, but he often appears to possess great common sense.
Most of the exchanges were interesting to hear and see, but Romney did the best job of presenting himself strong, confident and avoiding a more sort of cantankerous debating style that Newt Gingrich seemed to embody.
One final point about why Newt Gingrich will not be the ultimate winner in this race - sadly for him and his supporters, there are big Republicans who have come out and voiced their opposition to him. Bob Dole, Nancy Pelosi, and others have made it clear that they are no Newt fans. Pelosi say that he will never be President.. ‘There’s Something I Know’. The press has been reporting that he does not have a lot of party support.
So, at this point, from this perch, it appears that unless divine intervention happens, Mitt Romney will be the Republican candidate to run against the Democrats in November. There are still many states to go yet, and things can change, so we will see if this prediction is correct.
Some people are sports junkies, and some are political junkies. A party leadership race is very much like a sport. There are many competitions, lots of critical numbers involved, and timing is a key technique to score points. This blogger has a partial addiction for both, sometimes. One of those times is now, during the U.S. opposing party's election primary process.
Boy, it's scary how fast time flies. Seems like only the day before yesterday that the world was wondering if Barack Obama could actually win the Democratic nomination, let alone become the first black president. Here's the big picture presently: It is four years since then, and it's the Republican's turn to select a party leader to run against President Obama next fall.
The U.S. election process just seems like a continuing process that never really ends, from one election to another. The Republican party has been forever whittling down its list of candidates since last year, and talk about potential candidates began years ago.
There were 9 candidates in the fall debates, and between debates, scandals, polls and state primaries, there are now four left. One of those will battle Obama in the new "election of the century" in November. They all (that is, Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich) have their humanity points, i.e., strong and weak points. Romney appears strong on the economic side, largely due to his multi-millionaire success status. Gingrich comes across as a sharp, thinking man who has decades of political experience, and a politically savvy set of antennae that can sense and know the feel of the state electorate, the media, and thus, mentally prepare passionate attention-grabbing responses. Such was the case on Wednesday night's debate when he was asked by CNN's moderator John King, about his alleged "open marriage" suggestion to an ex-wife.
Ron Paul is bold and in some ways a bit radical, for a conservative Republican candidate. In the debate Wednesday, he quipped in one response, that the media, CNN, is run by a corporation.. meaning that CNN and others, have a certain agenda which is of interest to a big profit driven system. Rick Santorum is not so familiar so far to this observer, but he seems to have a clean slate. LIke the others, he is unapologetically a faith-based candidate and who not infrequently invokes a God/religious or moral reference. Personality and speaking-wise, he is not as interesting as the other three.
Wednesday's debate was the big lead-in to Saturday's primary vote in South Carolina. These are still early days and the magic number of number of delegates needed to win is 1144. Up until Monday, Jan. 16, Mitt Romney had the most momentum, but in the last six days, the political veteran Gingrich's political prospects are, like Lazarus, being strongly resurrected. A small miracle? Maybe. Gingrich was Speaker of the House of Representatives for four years during Clinton's presidency, and was close to Ronald Reagan's presidential office back in the 1980s. He has certainly had a big share of the limelight, and been a major influence on American politics and its economic policies. So one could think perhaps he has spent his political energy and already peaked.
Several months ago, other candidates regularly got their share of attention. There were the debate gaffs.. like the time Rick Perry on live tv, could not remember a 3rd federal department he had alluded to a few seconds prior. Then there was the charismatic, millionaire pizza expert Herman Cain, whose alleged marital infidelities created too much heat in the kitchen, and Cain could only offer half baked excuses. For him, "it' had been a slice" as they say. Michelle Bachmann of the Tea Party was always one to watch, partly because some of her past statements, like the time she suggested that the HPV vaccine caused mental retardation, were ripped to shreds.
Gingrich has been confident, outshone by others, but this wise politician's timing seems to be dead on. His rise is taking away the silent, yet hesitant assumption of many that the younger and richer Mitt Romney would win the Republican nomination. In fact, Gingrich convincingly won the state of South Carolina on Saturday night, and the most recent debate was a strong factor because Gingrich slammed a couple of home runs that night.
This political race is getting closer, and like the marathon the process is, Newt is definitely a marathon runner, and has paced himself to catch up with the leader Romney, and is now poised to overtake him. The next meet is in Florida on Jan. 31, but all athletes will be working out, their strategies, lines, solutions, and ammunition. As they all said after the South Carolina results came in, this fight is going to be long.
As it stands now, the two frontrunners are Romney and Gingrich, and they will likely be the last two standing. The present score of delegates are: Gingrich - 25; Romney - 14; Paul - 10; Santorum - 8. This week was a game changer for Newt, but it's too early to say who will ultimately win first place. It's getting more dramatic and lots more drama will happen as we see other political heavyweights join candidates' team, and determine the plays and the score.
This is a shot from CNN of Republican candidates Mitt Romney, a Mormon, and John McCain at the debate last evening. Here are a few possible captions for the picture: John, let me go. That guy made a pass at my wives.
McCain and Romney waltz as they both go after the gay vote.
Easy there Mitt, he described you as a Mormon, not moron.
